ES Commented Chart

On "popular demand" :D here is a commented chart on the ES continuous contract. We will see that we keep on following our old adage "go with the flow" while being careful as always in a resistance area.

HA Trigger Point

HA_Trigger is a simple yet interesting addition to the toolset. It calculates potential breakout point in determining the level that would have been required to toggle an uncertain "yellow" bar into a bullish blue or bearish red bar.
Generally quite effective when used in conjunction with MTFS.
At this very time of writing, the above snapshot is proving to be correct with a quick 5 pips short (target on key MM level)... Problably more pips to come, but that's another story.

TF Commented Chart

It's been a fairly long time since i did last post a commented chart.
I invite all users to compare it with their own "market reading" and let's review this market outlook next week.

DLL update June 1st 2009 ( minor fix )

A silly minor mistake in detrending data could lead to some occasional error in cycle detection. Error would only be visible in Entropy calculations. MTFS and pivot calculations do not use that part of the code.

It has now been fixed in DLL version 1.25, available on request.

SPY Swings & Cycles

We here show some market outlook on SPY using swings and cycles only.

MTFS : a fuzzy approach

As far as MTFS is concerned, it is possible to implement some Fuzzy Behaviour Analysis on our indicator.

For simplicity, we will limit our analysis to the fast white line (WL) and the slow green line (GL).

We can now therefore implement a Fuzzy Logic Controller (such as our sFLC3) onto both MTFS lines in a very classical way as this exercise is somewhat akin to the typical thermostat already described on the ForeTrade web site (see reference below). We do indeed feed each FLC with level and gradient information, to extract a line behaviour as an output.

Note however that we will derive the fuzzy system into 8 variations according to 2 extra pieces of information, namely, according to whether lines have crossed and how (no or outdated crossover, early crossover, spot-on, and late crossover) and whether the WL has peaked or not (crisp boolean). The rule sets will obviously be incompletely defined as some fuzzy states are impossible or of no interest.

We shall also pay attention to state saturation when interconnecting the 2 FLCs.

Next step will be to link the MTFS behaviour to Entropy and Support/Resistance information.


Reference: http://www.seattlerobotics.org/encoder/mar98/fuz/flindex.html

A picture is worth a 1000 words

Complement to the Weekly Report 040509